A.CRE

Pro Forma

A financial projection that provides an estimate of the potential income, expenses, and profitability of a real estate investment or development project. Typically used for planning, analysis, and decision-making purposes, a real estate pro forma presents anticipated revenues, operating expenses, financing costs, and cash flows, allowing investors, developers, and stakeholders to evaluate the financial viability and expected returns of the project.

While a pro forma is based on assumptions and estimates, it is an essential tool in real estate investment, enabling informed decision-making and risk assessment. In some contexts, the term pro forma is used to describe the projected state of a given financial metric as such is the case with pro forma NOI.

Putting ‘Pro Forma’ in Context

Horizon Equity Partners, a real estate private equity firm, is considering the acquisition of Cedar Creek Apartments, a 200-unit garden-style apartment community in a suburb of Nashville, Tennessee. Built in 1995, the property presents a value-add opportunity through targeted renovations and operational improvements. To make an informed decision, the firm creates a detailed pro forma to project the financial performance of the investment over a 10-year hold period.

Building the Pro Forma

The pro forma incorporates anticipated revenues, operating expenses, financing costs, and cash flows. Key assumptions include:

  • Effective Gross Income: Starting at $3.6 million annually, with projected rent growth of 3% per year
  • Operating Expenses: Estimated at $1.1 million annually, increasing by 2% per year
  • Renovation Budget: $2 million, funded upfront
  • Financing Costs: 65% loan-to-value (LTV) at a 5.5% interest rate
  • Stabilized Occupancy: 95% post-renovation

Pro Forma Net Operating Income (NOI)

The pro forma calculates the anticipated Net Operating Income (NOI) at stabilization by subtracting pro forma operating expenses from pro forma effective gross income. Here’s the projection for Year 1, post-renovation:

  • Effective Gross Income (EGI): $3,600,000
  • Operating Expenses: $1,100,000
  • Pro Forma NOI: $2,500,000

Financial Decision-Making

Using the pro forma, Horizon Equity Partners evaluates key financial metrics:

  • Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR): Calculated as Pro Forma NOI divided by annual debt service, providing a measure of the property’s ability to cover its financing costs
  • Cash-on-Cash Return: Based on the projected cash flow after financing costs
  • Exit Proceeds: Estimated using a 5.75% exit cap rate applied to the projected NOI at stabilization

Conclusion

This example demonstrates the importance of a pro forma in evaluating a real estate investment. By projecting income, expenses, and NOI, Horizon Equity Partners can determine whether Cedar Creek Apartments aligns with their financial goals and risk tolerance. The pro forma serves as a vital tool for assessing the project’s feasibility and expected returns.

Frequently Asked Questions about Pro Forma in Real Estate Analysis

A pro forma is a financial projection that estimates the potential income, expenses, and profitability of a real estate investment. It includes anticipated revenues, operating costs, financing, and cash flows to assess financial viability.

It helps investors evaluate the feasibility, risk, and return potential of a property by forecasting income and expenses over a hold period. As stated: “it is an essential tool in real estate investment, enabling informed decision-making and risk assessment.”

A pro forma usually includes effective gross income, operating expenses, renovation or capital budgets, financing assumptions, net operating income (NOI), debt service, and projected cash flows.

Horizon Equity Partners used a 10-year pro forma to model revenue growth, expense increases, renovation costs, and financing terms to project NOI and key returns like DSCR and cash-on-cash return.

Pro forma Net Operating Income (NOI) is the projected income after expenses, based on assumptions about future performance. For example: “Effective Gross Income of $3.6M minus $1.1M in expenses resulted in a Pro Forma NOI of $2.5M.”

Assumptions are based on market research, historical performance, rent growth projections, expected operating efficiencies, and financing terms. These estimates are informed but not guaranteed.

Because pro formas are based on assumptions, there’s a risk that actual performance will differ from projections due to market changes, lease-up challenges, or inaccurate cost estimates.

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